Today’s L.A. Times discusses the potential impact of an election where black voter turnout could increase by nearly 20%. With his sights set on five key swing states, Senator Obama could have an easy path to the White House if black enthusiasm stays as high as it’s been over the past year.
"David A. Bositis, an expert on black voting trends at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, predicts that turnout could rise by as much as 20%, and some Democratic strategists feel they can spur black turnout in the battleground states to as high as 75% of registered voters."
According to the Times, five states that could be most susceptible to this impact are Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina.
"In Florida alone, more than half a million black registered voters stayed home in 2004. Hundreds of thousands more African Americans are eligible to vote but not registered. And campaign analysts have identified similar potential in North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri and Ohio."
And that’s not the end of it. New laws might make ex-felons the group to put Obama over the top. Florida Governor Charlie Crist recently passed state legislation giving ex-felons the franchise:
"In a political twist, Democrats can thank a Republican for empowering one new group of voters: Florida felons. Gov. Charlie Crist last week announced that, thanks to a new rule he enacted, about 115,000 felons who had completed their sentences had become eligible under his administration to have their civil rights restored. . . . Experts say felons are disproportionately black and, if they can be found, more likely to be Obama backers. This provides a huge potential; about 1.1 million felons [emphasis added] in Florida were ineligible to vote in 2004, according to a 2006 book by sociologists Jeff Manza and Christopher Uggen."
To judge the power of the black in swing states, Obama need look no further than President Bush’s reelection campaign. In 2004 President Bush received 16% (that’s right . . . 16%) of the black vote in the crucial state of Ohio. That’s all it took. Give the Democrat just a little more support from the black vote and we could be discussing President Kerry’s reelection this year instead of Senator Obama.
But it’s never that easy. Let’s not forget the fact that we live in a zero sum society. And Obama’s biggest obstacle might be finding a way to energize the black vote without alienating whites at the same time. Supporters hope Obama’s centrist views on reparations and affirmative action might be enough to ease white resentment. But the media has failed to see the flip side of that very same coin . . . easing white resentment at the expense of black enthusiasm.
Will the black vote be there for Obama in November? The question isn’t a matter of if but how much. Can Obama really expect to energize the black vote without taking a risk with white America?
The answer to that question could mean the difference between a narrow loss and a landslide victory.
2 comments:
Great post, and happy to find your blog. Problem with getting elected is, a candidate has to be all things to all people, which might put off the people closest to his real, actual heart. So the people closest to his actual heart have to make that leap of faith that probably he really is who we know he is. And he has to keep faith with them. I still am.
omyma,
Thanks for visiting. And thank you for your comment.
I agree Obama's in a tough situation. But as you say, there's a certain amount of risk involved with every candidate. At the end of the day, you just have to hope that you picked the best of the bunch. Obama may not be perfect, but he's doing things and raising interest in ways that I'v never seen a politician do in my lifetime.
Thanks again for your comment.
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